![]() ![]() However, the way the assessment is derived may mask the real risk during El Niño periods. On first blush, that sounds like good news. It may well show reliability standards will be achieved. In August, the Australian Energy Market Operator is due to publish a new assessment of the grid’s expected reliability over the next decade. Bianca Di Marchi/AAP El Niño years are not normal The delayed Kurri Kurri project was supposed to be ready for the first summer following Liddell’s closure. But keeping the lights on is about to get expensive The station’s owners last week announced the plant would not be fully operational until mid-2024.Ĭombine all this with a likely El Niño, and the electricity sector may be facing a challenging summer. Unmet demand can lead to interrupted supply, or blackouts.īut the operator also said delays to the Kurri Kurri project posed risks to reliability in NSW this summer.Īdding to the pressures on the system, Queensland’s Callide C coal-fired power station is still not back to capacity more than two years after an explosion at the site. The standard requires at least 99.998% of forecast demand be met each year. The Australian Energy Market Operator said the electricity system was expected to meet the “reliability standard” in all regions for the next five years. ![]() It was scheduled to begin operating in December this year – in time for the first summer since the Liddell coal-fired power station closed. The Kurri Kurri project has been delayed for a year. The market operator pointed to delays to the Snowy 2.0 hydro project and the gas-fired Kurri Kurri Power Station, both in New South Wales. David Mariuz/AAP Other headwinds are blowingĪside from facing a likely El Niño, the electricity sector faces other headaches.Įarlier this year, the Australian Energy Market Operator warned electricity demand “may exceed supply” at times over the next decade due to factors such as weather conditions or generator outages. When the electricity grid is under stress, this can lead to blackouts. This occurred in Tasmania in 2016, and contributed to an energy crisis in that state.Īustralia's energy market operator is worried about the grid's reliability. Among other effects on the electricity grid, this can reduce output from hydroelectricity generators (which produce electricity by pumping water through turbines). This happened in Victoria in early 2019, when more than 200,000 customers lost power during a period of extreme heat.Įl Niño events are also associated with reduced rainfall. When the electricity grid is under stress, this can lead to “load shedding” or blackouts – when power companies deliberately switch off the power supply to groups of customers to prevent the overall system from becoming dangerously unstable. This lowers their capacity to transport energy. ![]() And the hotter transmission lines get, the less electrical current they can safely carry. AEMOĪt the same time, electricity generators – including coal, gas, solar and wind – can become less efficient in hot temperatures, and so provide less energy to the system. Scatterplot of New South Wales demand and temperature, example based on 2017 calendar year. ![]()
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